Air Cargo Recovery Continues in September
- Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs*), was 8% below previous-year levels in September (-9.9% for international operations). That is an improvement from the 12.1% year-on-year drop recorded in August. Month-on-month demand grew by 3.7% in September.
- Global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), shrank by 25.2% in September ( 28% for international operations) compared to the previous year. That is nearly three times larger than the contraction in demand, indicating a severe lack of capacity in the market.
- Strong regional variations are emerging with North American and African carriers reporting year-on-year gains in demand (+1.5% and +9.7% respectively), while all other regions remained in negative territory compared to a year earlier.
- Improving performance is aligned with improvements in key economic indicators;
- The new export orders component of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose above the 50-mark, indicating growth, for the first time since mid-2018;
- The World Trade Organization revised their 2020 trade growth forecast from -12.9% to -9.2%;
September 2020 (% year-on-year) | World share1 | CTK | ACTK | CLK | CLF |
Total Market | 100% | -8.0% | -25.2% | 10.6% | 56.9% |
Africa | 1.8% | 8.2% | -28.1% | 17.0% | 50.7% |
Asia Pacific | 34.5% | -15.9% | -29.5% | 10.4% | 64.2% |
Europe | 23.6% | -15.4% | -31.8% | 12.0% | 62.0% |
Latin America | 2.8% | -22.5% | -36.5% | 8.2% | 45.6% |
Middle East | 13.0% | -2.6% | -23.6% | 12.5% | 57.9% |
North America | 24.3% | 8.6% | -15.0% | 10.5% | 48.4% |
¹% of industry CTKs in 2019 ²Year-on-year change in load factor ³Load factor level
September Regional Performance
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for international air cargo fall 14.6% in September 2020 compared to the same month a year earlier. This was an improvement from the 16.4% fall in August 2020. Demand on routes between Asia–North America and Asia–Africa were strongest. International capacity remained constrained in the region, down 32%, despite airlines adding more capacity on many routes.
- North American carriers returned to pre-crisis levels, posting a 1.5% increase in international demand compared to the previous year—the first month of growth in 10 months. This strong performance was driven by the Asia-North America routes, reflecting e-commerce demand for products manufactured in Asia. The region’s domestic market also performed robustly. International capacity decreased by 19.7%.
- European carriers reported a decrease in demand of 15.7% compared to the previous year. Improvements have been slight but consistent amid recovering economic activity and increasing exports, however, all major routes remained in contractionary territory. International capacity decreased 32.8%.
- Middle Eastern carriers reported a decline of 2.5% in year-on-year international cargo volumes in September, a significant improvement from the 6.7% fall in August. The region was one of the most severely affected by COVID-19. However, due to regional airlines aggressively adding capacity following the peak of the crisis, it has seen a sharp V-shaped recovery. International capacity decreased by 23.5%.
- Latin American carriers reported a decline of 22.2% compared to the previous year. The region’s weak performance is owing to a severe slowdown in economic activity including trade, rather than insufficient cargo capacity. International capacity decreased 32.2%.
- African airlines saw demand increase by 9.7% year-on-year in September. This was the fifth consecutive month in which the region posted the strongest increase in international demand. Investment flows along the Africa-Asia route continue to drive the regional outcomes. International capacity decreased by 24.9%.
